

Derek has written for NESN.com, The Badger Herald, The Metrowest Daily News, Uwire.com and SportingNews.com. Email him at dzetlin@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter at @derekzetlin.
Last night my roommates plus three others got back from a weekend in
People have asked me why I came to
Too bad for them.
It was a tough start to 2009 for the Sucker Bet Theory (SBT), as it went a dismal 1-3 in Week 2. To be honest, it should have gone 1-4, seeing that Colts -3 at
The Chiefs couldn’t hold of Darren McFadden and the Raiders; likewise for the Lions with Adrian Peterson. And the Falcons covered by two at home against the now-0-2 Panthers.
One of three conclusions (I like Nos. 2 and 3) can be made from last Sunday. 1) SBT is false. 2) The bookies are a bit rusty and still gauging just how good each team is. Or 3) What I like to call SBTII, a sub-theory, if you will. SBTII says that the bookies screw up on purpose early in the season to entice more gambling as the season progresses. If you bet on
Three games stick out to me as sucker bets in Week 3. So without further ado:
At Jets -2.5 Titans
New Yorkfense had no answer for Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson & Co. – is 0-2. The Jets should be able to cover at home, you think.
But this is a must-win game for Jeff Fisher’s Titans. Call it the hangover effect in the Meadowlands, if you must. The Jets still have a rookie coach and a rookie quarterback, no matter how good they looked against
At Texans -3.5 Jaguars
Houston
My question: Who in the world is betting on the Jaguars in this game?
Exactly. All the money will be on
No way Vegas screws this one up. If the Texans cover, the bookies will lose a lot of money (unless SBTII is still in effect in Week 3, which is a possibility).
Biggest sucker bet of the week. Bet on
Bears -2 at
Matt Hasselbeck is hurt and probably out, leaving Seneca Wallace at the helm once again. Jay Cutler and the Bears are coming off an impressive win against the defending champs. And the line is only two.
Do not underestimate home field advantage in the NFL. Or Lofa Tatupu, for that matter.
You love
My roommate Jordan and I have been working on a theory for about two years now, called the Sucker Bet Theory (SBT). It’s time it becomes unveiled.
What gamblers must realize is that in the long run, you’re not going to beat the bookies. I’ve given up. You’re not going to outsmart the bookies and they didn’t overlook the line you think is a gimme. Ever thought, “I can’t believe that line is so low, no way they can stop Adrian Peterson; the Vikings will definitely cover 6 1/2”?
Heed my warning: extinguish that thought process from your mindset. But look on the bright side: there is money to be made during football season. I invite you to continue reading.
In order to beat the bookies, you must think like a bookie. Typically, bookies make money on juice. Think of juice like a tax, which is usually 10 percent. In other words, you bet $110 to win $100, or $55 to win $50. In most cases, the bookie’s job is to set a line to initiate even money on both sides, his profit then being the juice from the losers. Think of it like the casino’s rake in poker.
(This is why I hate when people credit the bookies for making a line equal to or close to the eventual score, as if they get more money for being accurate. It’s actually quite the opposite: if they nail the score exactly, everybody pushes, gets their money back and the bookies make no money.)
But SBT exists in a different environment. SBT is when the bookies are so sure that one team is going to cover a spread, that they bait gamblers into choosing the other side with an enticing line. In this case, more money is on one side than the other, and the bookies profit off of losing bets rather than the juice.
Sucker bets come in all forms, but are most prevalent in road teams, teams coming off big weeks or whose opponents had uninspiring weeks. “Wow, Mark Sanchez tore it up Sunday. He’s definitely going to do it again next week, I’m taking the Jets.”
You and everyone else. 70/30 bets are in favor of the Jets. Jets don’t cover. Bookies clean up. Behold: you are a sucker. Does your cheek hurt? You just ate the worm.
It was hard to recognize sucker bets in Week 1, seeing that no one really knew what to expect. But there are some obvious ones for Week 2. Let’s take a look:
Raiders +3 at Chiefs
The Raiders played the Chargers, one of the AFC’s best teams on paper, down to the wire. The Chiefs lost by 14 points to the Ravens.
“If they Raiders almost beat
You’re not alone. The Raiders are playing on a short week and traveling from
Bet
Vikings -9.5 at Lions
Adrian Peterson looked unstoppable against the Browns. The Lions got smoked against Drew Brees and the Saints. Looks like another blowout, right?
Not so fast. The line is an enticing one, a half-point below 10. In other words, the bookies want you to think, “
But 9 1/2 points is a ton to cover in the NFL. I’m not necessarily saying bet on
At Falcons -6 Panthers
Matt Ryan was impressive against the Dolphins in Week 1. Jake Delhomme threw four picks against the Eagles. Looks like a no-brainer.
Need I throw another fake quote in here? You get it by now. Under a touchdown is enticing. But it’s a division game and I’m not sold on that
Steelers -3 at Bears
Speaking of four picks. Steelers coming off a good win against a solid Titans team. Jay Cutler looked like Brett Favre in last season’s finale, only worse. Game’s on national TV in Soldier Field.
Everybody and their brother like the Steelers. This will be Vegas’ biggest Week 2 win.
Granted, SBT is not 100 percent accurate. One or more of those teams will probably cover on Sunday. Just be hesitant in choosing any of them. They bookies saw Cutler’s performance in
Most bookies aren’t in the money-losing business.
Perhaps the most important aspect to success in college is meeting people. Networking really is the key to life. You’ve heard the phrase, “It’s not what you know, it’s who you know.” It’s entirely true. Madison provides you with incredible opportunities to meet people from all over the world, with different areas of interest and diverse backgrounds. Expand your horizons. Force yourself out of your comfort zone; that’s how you grow as an individual. If you see someone sitting at a table by themselves, go talk to them. You have nothing to lose and everything to gain. Create as many contacts as you can; they’ll come in handy some day, believe me.
Along those same lines, keep in touch with your contacts. In today’s world, you have no excuse not to. With Facebook, G-chat, E-mail, instant messenger, text messaging, BBMs, Twitter, you can keep in touch with everyone with just a simple click or two. Do it. You’ll never know when that person can come in handy down the road. Make contacts and keep in touch with them. It’s the key to life, I’m telling you.
Don’t be afraid to self-promote. Facebook, blogs, other forms of social media provide a great way for you to show the world what you can do. It’s not bragging; it’s merely self-marketing. You never know who stumbles upon your work or ideas and likes what you do. That too can come in handy some day.
I have a theory, it’s called: Finding the Dork in You. This is no longer high school. The “uncool” things to do no longer exist. If you were a math wiz but never would have been caught dead at a math club meeting, times have changed. Find what drives you. If you like biology, real estate, biochemical engineering, poetry, go explore your options here at UW. If there’s not already a club, start your own. It’s no longer uncool. Find the dork in you. Mine was writing. I wrote for The Badger Herald for my entire first three years here, skipping football pre-games to cover the team from the press box. I had to make sacrifices, but it’s opened some pretty cool doors for me down the road. Trust me, it’s worth it.
Diversify your skill set. You are like a stock portfolio; you want to diversify your assets. Gather as many skills as you can. If you’re a writer, take an economics class. If you’re into business, take computer science. You’ll never know when different skills will come in handy for you and it’s important to be well-rounded and not narrow-minded. Imagine if you devoted all your time to newspaper design or VCR production. Those industries don’t last forever. Become well-versed in many areas, and you’ll be an asset to any future employer you encounter.
In order to be as knowledgeable as you possibly can in as many areas as possible, you need to teach yourself. The best way to do that is to read. Not necessarily books either. Read online. Read about politics, economics, chemistry, if that’s your thing. Just understand the world in which you live. I can’t tell you how valuable that is. Learning in class is one thing, but the kids who are best equipped to succeed outside the classroom are the ones who went above and beyond, reading, learning on their own time. Remember, you don’t fill in multiple choice bubbles in the real world.
Aside from learning on your own and in the classroom, talk to your professors. Not just your TAs, either, I mean professors. This is my biggest regret of my first three years of college; I rarely talked to my professors. Not only could it potentially help you go from a B to an AB or an AB to an A, but you’ll understand the material tenfold, which could perhaps spark a future interest that you may not have originally thought of.
I’ve come up with another theory, that 94 percent of success in all life activities stems from confidence and experience. All right, 94 is an arbitrary number, but so much of success in all endeavors comes from those two things. Practice really does make perfect and confidence in yourself breeds others confidence’ in you.
In order to stay confident in yourself, you want to stay in shape. This is overlooked by so many college kids. Use the SERF, eat right, stay healthy. If you look good and feel good, your confidence will stay high and you’ll take yourself to new heights. It’s easy to drink too much beer and put on that proverbial freshman 15. It’s avoidable; you just have to be proactive and smart.
This was supposed to run on NESN.com but was already posted by the time I wrote it.
With the pitching staff sputtering just a week after baseball’s non-waiver trade deadline, the Red Sox added a familiar face to their rotation late Wednesday night.
Sox GM Theo Epstein dug deep into his bag of tricks, signing the retired Paul Byrd to a minor league deal.
The Red Sox traded for Byrd after the July 31 deadline last season, when he went 4-2 with a 4.78 ERA with the club.
"I'm excited," Byrd told mlb.com. "I think I can be back in shape and help them out in whatever role they need me to help them out in September. Maybe I can get that World Series ring."
According to the site, Byrd has been staying in shape all season long, in anticipation of a possible return to baseball. He will start out at the team’s Spring Training complex in Fort Myers, Fla.
"I am in shape, I have been throwing," Byrd continued. "It's not like I haven't picked up a ball. I have been throwing, I've been off a mound twice in the last three days, six times in the last two weeks. There's a difference between pitching in a game and throwing a bullpen. I would need to start out at one or two innings and build up arm strength."
With Clay Buchholz, John Smoltz, Brad Penny struggling and Tim Wakefield and Daisuke Matsuzaka on the disabled list, the Red Sox are in desperate need of a consistent arm to guide them toward the postseason.
They’re hoping Byrd has enough left in the tank.
Brett Gardner’s broken thumb has opened up a spot in the Yankee outfield, specifically center field. The question now, is: how do they fill that void?
The first option is that the Yankees could do some shifting from within. Both Johnny Damon and Nick Swisher have center field experience, but neither has played there since September of last season. Damon used to be an everyday center fielder, but his range isn’t half what it used to be when he was in a Red Sox, Royals or A’s uniform. And Swisher can play just about anywhere on the diamond, including the pitcher’s mound.
"I could do it," Swisher told LoHud.com, in reference to playing center field. "I don't know about every day, but I could do it."
If the Yankees were to move Damon or Swisher to center, it would then open up either left or right field, respectively. That spot could either be filled by recently acquired Eric Hinske or the aging Hideki Matsui. Neither seems like an ideal everyday solution fort Joe Girardi’s first-place club.
The Yankees currently have eight pitchers in their bullpen, but one could easily be replaced by a Triple-A outfielder to take Gardner’s place in order to keep Damon and Swisher in their respective corners. Shelley Duncan, Ramiro Pena, John Rodriguez and Austin Jackson could all be promoted from Scranton to play center field in the Bronx. Jackson is Scranton’s current everyday center fielder and one of the Yankees’ top non-pitching prospects. He is hitting .313 with four home runs, 39 RBIs and 17 stolen bases with Scranton this season.
Or, of course the Yankees could trade for a center fielder before Friday’s trade deadline.
There are no obvious center fielders on the trade market that could immediately be worthwhile for the Yankees to acquire in the next three days. But, because of the team’s financial situations, Rays left fielder Carl Crawford’s name has come up as possible post-2009 trade bait. But it is unlikely that Tampa Bay will unload the league’s stolen base leader in the midst of a pennant race.
However, while the Yankees are in Tampa Bay, CC Sabathia is joining Crawford on Wednesday in an event aimed at encouraging young African Americans to play baseball.
But even if CC convinces Crawford that he’d look good in pinstripes, he’ll have to coax Rays GM Andrew Friedman that Tampa Bay can still compete without Crawford and his .308 BA, 65 runs and 47 steals, not to mention his gold glove-caliber defensive skills.
Don’t count on it.
Greene is someone that I had the pleasure of witnessing live last season, from the friendly confines of Iowa City’s Kinnick Stadium’s press box. Greene tore up Wisconsin, rushing for 220 yards and three touchdowns on 25 carries (Mike Ackerstein wrote the gamer, but I wrote the creative headline Sunday night for Monday’s print) en route to a 38-16 romping of the feeble Badgers – their fourth straight loss at the time.
But Greene’s numbers (1,850 yards, 20 touchdowns in 2008, his junior season) are only half as impressive as his story. Greene failed out of school in 2007, forced to move furniture at a store down the street from Kinnick Stadium to stay afloat financially. To make a long story midget-sized, he made the most of his second chance, leading the Big Ten in rushing, and landing with the Jets in April’s draft.
When I saw the Jets landed both Mark Sanchez and Shonn Greene in the first three rounds, I remember nodding my head from Krakow, Poland. “Well done,” I thought. Greene has the speed, strength and tackle-shedding abilities to be a successful NFL running back. I hate the Jets, but I’m a fan of Greene. I enjoy comeback stories, kids who taste the real world before signing for millions. I think that experience will serve him well for what his NFL future has in store for him.
He’ll make the Pro Bowl some day, too. And remember, you heard that here first.
Monday I was listening to Bill Simmons’ podcast, “The B.S. Report” in the car. ESPN’s Erin Andrews was his guest and at one point she started talking about the difficulties about being a female sports reporter, one of which being that some males simply don’t want accept sports information from a woman, Ron Burgandy style.
Put down your newspaper, take the tape out of your VCR, finish paying your bills via checks and get with the program. It’s 2009.
Guess what? Women feed our sports info hunger, and they’re damn good at it, too. Ever watch Jackie MacMullen on “Around the Horn” or read Amalie Benjamin in The Boston Globe? Andrews may be the best in the business. They know their shit.
Face it guys, Andrews is smarter than you, more articulate than you, more professional than you, much better looking than you and she knows more about sports than you. People see her blond hair and assume she’s a ditz. Well, we all know what happens when you assume.
I know the counterargument: “I want to hear it from someone that’s been there, someone that played.” That’s reasonable, but there’s a place for ex-players, like pre-game shows and in-game color men, like how NESN’s Jim Rice complements Tom Caron and Jerry Remy (get well soon, RemDawg) complements Don Orsillo in the booth. And the Heidi Watneys and the Andrews’ dig for stories and give us the dirt.
More and more women are entering the sports world, which – no matter what you say – is a good thing. They bring a new perspective to the games dominated my testosterone for decades. They’re not going to tell you how to hit a 95 mph fastball or wrap up LaDanian Tomlinson, but that’s not their job. Rick Reilly, Bill Simmons and Mike Greenberg don’t either, and you still read, watch and listen to them. The three of them together couldn’t bench press the bar. It’s called media, becoming the bridge from teams to fans. It’s a skill, and some women do it damn well.
Go upload Simmons’ talk with Andrews and tell me I’m wrong.
Wait, you don’t know how? And you’re still pissed that she’s on ESPN? You’ve got bigger things to worry about, pal.
According to Michael Felger on Comcast Sportsnet’s “Sports Tonight” Monday night, “We heard a rumble today, just a little rumble. Danny’s throwing a bunch of stuff against the wall as he likes to do. Memphis sitting there at No. 2. Perk and… [Bill Walker].”
In this situation at No. 2, the Celtics have three apparent moves. The first, and perhaps most sensible would be taking UConn’s Hasheem Thabeet. If they were to deal Perkins, they immediately lose a young, defensive-minded starting center to complement Kevin Garnett, who still has three years left on his current contract. If they were to take anyone else here, they’d have a huge hole to fill at the five spot, which is essential in making a championship run, especially for a defensive team like the Celtics. At seven-foot-two, Thabeet can immediately contribute on the defensive end as a natural shot blocker and rebounder next to Garnett.
If Ainge values upside over need, he may take either Spain’s Ricky Rubio or Memphis guard Tyreke Evans, whom he reportedly has interest in. Either would create a crowded Boston backcourt, assuming the team keeps Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo, which at this point, are big assumptions.
Of course, this is all speculation, but it seems as though Ainge is exercising all potential trade options before the June 25 draft. The only names that haven’t come up over the past few weeks are Garnett and captain Paul Pierce.
The Grizzlies originally drafted Perkins in 2003 with the 27th overall pick, then immediately traded him, along with point guard Marcus Banks to the Celtics for Dahntay Jones and former Boston College guard Troy Bell, who were taken by Boston in the same draft. The Washington Wizards selected Walker in the second round in 2008 before shipping him to the C’s for cash.
This story was written to run on NESN.com, but was not posted.
That was before the Magic’s season extended into June.
Now, according to ESPN.com, Nelson’s teammates are optimistic that their backcourt quarterback will return to play in the Finals, which start Thursday in Los Angeles.
“I expect to see him out there at some point in the series,” backup point guard Anthony Johnson told ESPN.
Orlando GM Otis Smith, however, is not completely buying the optimism.
"It's still no in my mind," Smith said about Nelson’s possibility of returning this season. "There's a very smidgen of a chance he can play."
Nelson has been playing in full-court games and participating in non-contact drills for two weeks.
“I've been known to do some amazing things sometimes," he said, hinting at his possible return.
With Nelson on the shelf for what was supposed to be the rest of the 2009 season, the Magic traded for then-Rockets point guard Rafer Alston in part of a three-team deal on Feb. 19, the same day Nelson went under the knife.
In the deal, the Magic sent Brian Cook to the Rockets, while Adonal Foyle, Mike Wilks and a 2009 first round draft pick were sent to the Memphis Grizzlies.
Alston averaged 12 points and 5.1 assists per game for Orlando during the regular season, and his postseason numbers (12 and 4.1) have been just as consistent.
This post was originally intended to run on NESN.com, but never did.