Week 7 Picks

Last Week: 7-6-1

Overall: 49-37-4

Simmons Last Week: 7-6-1

Simmons Overall: 47-39-4

Pretty sure I screwed up the math somewhere before this week, so I'll trust that Simmons' overall numver of games is right, considering his picks are edited and posted on ESPN.com and mine are done here when I'm usually hungover. Simmons and I tied last week, so I hold a two-game lead over him heading into Week 7. What a matchup.

Steelers -3 at DOLPHINS -- The Steelers are the best team in football. They'll show why on Sunday.

FALCONS -3.5 Bengals -- If the Bengals weren't coming off a bye, this line would be Falcons -6. Do byes really help that much? We'll find out.

CHIEFS -6.5 Jaguars -- I normally hate -6.5. And I hate betting against teams that sucked on national TV the week before because everyone wants to bet against them. But the Chiefs are for real and after blowing it in Houston last week, they're on a mission. KC by 13.

TITANS -3 Eagles -- Short week for the Titans. Good thing they have that short running back who's faster than Brett Favre's decline from popularity. He sucked last week and had over 100 yards rushing. Isn't this about the same time he started averaging 278 yards and three touchdowns per game last season?

BEARS -3 Redskins -- Are they really going to lose two straight home games to the Seahawks and Redskins?

SAINTS -13 Browns -- Drew Brees and Co. finally found their rhythm last week against the Buccaneers in Tampa. The Browns at home shouldn't hinder that progress.

Bills +13 RAVENS -- Ryan Fitzpatrick has played relatively well since being inserted into the starting lineup. The Harvard boy has to keep it within two touchdowns coming off a bye, right? Definitely not, but I'll take the Bills here anyway.

49ers -3 PANTHERS -- Can the 9ers make the playoffs after starting 0-5? It's possible in the NFC West. Let's find out.

BUCCANEERS -2.5 Rams -- Dome team on grass with a rookie quarterback against a team who just got blown out against the defending champs. Duh.

Cardinals +5.5 SEAHAWKS -- Max Hall, anyone?

Patriots +3 CHARGERS -- No Vincent Jackson. Antonio Gates is banged up. No more LT. Dei0n has the game-winner in the 4th quarter. I think we've seen that one before.

Raiders +8 BRONCOS -- Eight points in a divisional game with Darren McFadden coming back from injury? I would have said 6.5 and still taken Oakland.

Vikings +3 PACKERS -- This is why they flew down to Mississippi to get Favre back. For this game alone.

COWBOYS -3 Giants -- NFC East road games are so tough. Can the 'Boys really go 1-5?

Week 6 Picks

Last Week: 6-8

Overall: 42-29-3

Simmons Last Week: 9-5

Simmons Overall: 40-33-3

Simmons smoked me last week, but I still hold a three-game edge heading into Week 6. I didn't have time this week to write out a column, but I did email myself picks on Friday so I could post them late today, Sunday. Right now, the late games are in the second half, so I'll write what I was thinking (if anything) when I made them, then what actually happened in the games that are finished in italics.

Chargers -8 RAMS (L) -- Rams suck; Chargers don't. Uhh, turns out the opposite is true.

Chiefs +4.5 TEXANS (W) -- Part of me thinks this is a sucker bet; the other part thinks the Chiefs are for real. I'll go with the latter half. Thank god for that half-point.

PATRIOTS -2.5 Ravens (W) -- Never bet against Bill Belichick after a bye. Uhh thanks for the half-point. Again.

Saints -4 BUCCANEERS (W) -- The Saints have to click at some point, right? Yup.

EAGLES -2.5 Falcons (W) -- Kevin Kolb is better than he's getting credit for. Man, he has something to prove. Yup again.

GIANTS -10 Lions (L) -- Lions haven't won a road game since the Red Sox won the World Series in 2007. Yes, that's a fact, brought to you by none other than Jeremy Hyman. What a second half for Calvin Johnson. Lions cover, but still a goose egg since '07.

BEARS -6 Seahawks (L) -- NFC West teams can't win on the road out of the division. Uhh, yes they can.

PACKERS -3 Dolphins (L) --Packers don't lose at home, as long as A-Rod's healthy. Apparently they do.

STEELERS -13.5 Browns (W) -- Prediction: 38-3. Close enough.

Jets -3 BRONCOS -- You know I love home teams against teams on short weeks. Maybe if I pick the Jets and use reverse psychology, it will actually happen. Nah, I just think the Jets are that good.

Raiders +6.5 49ERS -- Have you ever seen an 0-5 team favored by 6.5 points? Ever?

Cowboys +1.5 VIKINGS -- Favre's toast.

Colts -3 REDSKINS -- Am I really supposed to bet against Peyton on primetime? Really?

Titans -2.5 JAGUARS -- I also love home teams +2.5. But I think I love Chris Johnson a bit more.

Week 5 Picks

Last Week: 9-5

Overall: 36-23-3

Simmons Last Week: 6-8

Simmons Overall: 31-28-3

Slowly but surely I’m digging Simmons into a deeper and deeper hole. A blowout performance last week gives me some breathing room here for Week 5. But I show no mercy; time to bring the heat!

RAVENS -7 Broncos – Kyle Orton has looked more like John Elway than Kyle Orton through four weeks. Kyle, this is Ravens defense. Ravens defense, this is Kyle.

BILLS -1 Jaguars – The 0-4 Bills are favored at home after the Jags took down the Colts in Jacksonville. Love it!

COLTS -7 Chiefs – Never bet against Bill Belichick after a bye week. Oh wait, the Chiefs have Romeo Crennel, Charlie Weis, Scott Pioli, Matt Cassel, Mike Vrabel, but no Belichick. I’ll take Peyton Manning coming off a loss to the lowly Jaguars.

LIONS -3 Rams – Another 0-4 team favored? Wins against fellow NFC West teams don’t count in my book. Lions roll and Megatron leads my fantasy team to another victory, this time over Matt Magnani in my Framingham FAM keeper league.

Falcons -3 BROWNS – The Browns can’t win back-to-back games against winning teams, can they? Prove it!

Buccaneers +7 BENGALS – Man that’s a lot of points for a 2-1 team coming off a bye. Remember the name: Mike Williams.

PANTHERS -2.5 Bears – This line has shifted five points since Monday. Todd Collins at quarterback on the road? No thanks.

Packers -2.5 REDSKINS – Man I hate -2.5 on the road. But the Packers looked shitty against the Lions at home last week and the McNabb took down the Eagles in Philly that afternoon. Packers roll; that’s just how the NFL works.

TEXANS -3 Giants – Just like he did with “Shutter Island” for Tyler Fishbune last semester, Brian Walesa ruined Simmons’ Texans pick by posting it on my Facebook wall. Unfortunately, I agree with him. Playing the Bears after a Monday night battle with the Packers was a gift for the G-Men. This week, not so much.

Saints -7 CARDINALS – The Super Bowl champs haven’t quite clicked yet. A little dose of Derek Anderson and the Cardinals should do the trick. And by the way, Drew Brees, how about throwing the ball to Marques Colston, your best receiver? Could that help, perhaps? Jesus Christ, you’re killing my Bro Haus fantasy team! (That and Andre Johnson and Ryan Grant’s ankles, respectively).

Chargers -6 RAIDERS – For some reason I hate betting against the Raiders on late home games. I have no stats to back it up, just a gut feeling. But the Chargers are rollin’, and Darren McFadden is out. Go Phillip, go! Did I really just say that?

Titans +7 COWBOYS – The Cowboys Line Inflation Theory, brought to you by Jordan Russum. I mean, he did patent the Sucker Bet Theory with me in 2007. Seven points? I like it.

49ers -3 Eagles – Three 0-4 favorites at home. No more Michael Vick for Philly, at least for now. I’m calling it; Kevin Kolb actually poops in his pants when Patrick Willis stares at him at the line. Just remember where you heard it first.

Vikings +4 JETS – Ugh, I have to root for Randy Moss THIS week? Scratch that, I’m rooting for a 0-0 tie.

Week 4 Picks

Last Week: 9-7

Overall: 27-18-3

Simmons Last Week: 10-6

Simmons Overall: 26-19-3

Once again, it came down to Monday night, but this time Simmons got me, taking the Bears at home over the Packers. What an impossible game to take, as the Pack shot themselves in the foot with 18 penalties on the road, never a recipe for success, especially away from home. I still have Simmons by a game overall, though. Now on to Week 4.

Broncos +6.5 TITANS – I love +6.5 lines, as most people think, “They’ll win by at least a touchdown.” Such an enticing line to take the favorites, but I won’t bite. Kyle Orton seems to have found a new weapon in Brandon Lloyd. Horses cover on the road. And don’t be surprised if Laurence Maroney has a significant impact either.

STEELERS -1.5 Ravens – Kind of weird they’re not -3 here; a little scary. But how can you bet against that defense right now? At home!

Bengals -3 BROWNS – Hate this game. Just can’t bet on the Browns getting only three.

Lions +14.5 PACKERS – Short week for the Pack. Too many points. I think?

Panthers +13.5 SAINTS – New Orleans hasn’t clicked yet. Pierre Thomas is banged up, Reggie Bush is out and Mike Bell is gone. That might just be enough for the Panthers to cover two touchdowns. Maybe.

49ers +6.5 FALCONS – 49ers were on a short week on the road last week. Falcons are coming off a huge win over the Super Bowl champs. Watch out for Frank Gore.

Seahawks -1 RAMS – Can the Rams really win two games in a row? I’ll take the under.

Jets -5 BILLS – Mark Sanchez actually looks like an NFL quarterback. That’s scary.

Colts -7 JAGUARS – I know they always play them tough. But I told you I refuse to bet against Peyton Manning.

Texans -3 RAIDERS – Ugh what a trap. You might find me at the bottom of the ditch.

CHARGERS -8 Cardinals – Phil Rivers doesn’t seem to be missing Vinny Jackson much. Can you say blowout?

Redskins +5.5 EAGLES – Can you say “Chip on your shoulder”? Does he get booed or cheered? That’s the million-dollar question.

GIANTS -4 Bears – Short week on the road. All day baby!

DOLPHINS pick Patriots – Obviously picking with my head here, not my heart. Pats never play well when they take their talents to South Beach.