Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Hidden incentive to lose?

I'm not suggesting any foul play. It doesn't even smell salmon-like. But as an economics major, I think in terms of incentives, so this intrigued me.

We're in the midst of college basketball's so-called Championship Week. Among other things, it serves as a last chance for the season's biggest underachievers to earn a last-minute bid to the Big Dance. Of course, a conference tournament championship of any variety gives a team a ticket to participate in the annual Madness, whether you're East Tennessee State, Radford or VCU.

Or Cleveland State, who beat Horizon League No. 1-seeded Butler, 57-54 last night. Butler is a team that's been consistently among the nation's Top 25 for the past few years. But like Conference USA's Memphis, the Dawgs get annual criticism for playing in a weak conference. Needless to say, both the Tigers and Bulldogs are in bracketology's safe haven, for even if they fail to win their respective conference tournaments -- which the Bulldogs did -- they each will surely receive automatic tournament bids.

Sure, a conference tourny trophy will boost each of their resumes and subsequently raise their tournament seeds. But honestly, what's the different between a five and a six-seed? Or a two and a three? Not much.

Instead, it seems as if both teams have more to gain in the long run from losing than racking up another seemingly meaningless victory in the eyes of the national media. For if Cleveland State makes an unforeseen Sweet 16 run, it will help recruiting in the long run and thus bolster the future of the Horizon League, while Butler loses nothing in the meantime.

Think about it: Memphis has all but locked up a tournament two-seed, but will need some serious help to snag a No. 1. If it were to throw the C-USA final to, say, Tulsa, what does it have to lose? Tulsa would then receive an automatic bid, the conference would get an extra ticket to the Dance and subsequently look that much deeper, and Memphis is still the No. 2 seed in the East Regional.

Not exactly a scandal of Black Sox magnitude. But I thought it was worth noting.

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