Derek has written for NESN.com, The Badger Herald, The Metrowest Daily News, Uwire.com and SportingNews.com. Email him at firstname.lastname@example.org and follow him on Twitter at @derekzetlin.
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Week 7 Picks
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Week 6 Picks
Sunday, October 10, 2010
Week 5 Picks
Last Week: 9-5
Simmons Last Week: 6-8
Simmons Overall: 31-28-3
Slowly but surely I’m digging Simmons into a deeper and deeper hole. A blowout performance last week gives me some breathing room here for Week 5. But I show no mercy; time to bring the heat!
RAVENS -7 Broncos – Kyle Orton has looked more like John Elway than Kyle Orton through four weeks. Kyle, this is Ravens defense. Ravens defense, this is Kyle.
BILLS -1 Jaguars – The 0-4 Bills are favored at home after the Jags took down the Colts in
COLTS -7 Chiefs – Never bet against Bill Belichick after a bye week. Oh wait, the Chiefs have Romeo Crennel, Charlie Weis, Scott Pioli, Matt Cassel, Mike Vrabel, but no Belichick. I’ll take Peyton Manning coming off a loss to the lowly Jaguars.
LIONS -3 Rams – Another 0-4 team favored? Wins against fellow NFC West teams don’t count in my book. Lions roll and Megatron leads my fantasy team to another victory, this time over Matt Magnani in my Framingham FAM keeper league.
Falcons -3 BROWNS – The Browns can’t win back-to-back games against winning teams, can they? Prove it!
Buccaneers +7 BENGALS – Man that’s a lot of points for a 2-1 team coming off a bye. Remember the name: Mike Williams.
PANTHERS -2.5 Bears – This line has shifted five points since Monday. Todd Collins at quarterback on the road? No thanks.
Packers -2.5 REDSKINS – Man I hate -2.5 on the road. But the Packers looked shitty against the Lions at home last week and the McNabb took down the Eagles in Philly that afternoon. Packers roll; that’s just how the NFL works.
TEXANS -3 Giants – Just like he did with “
Saints -7 CARDINALS – The Super Bowl champs haven’t quite clicked yet. A little dose of Derek Anderson and the Cardinals should do the trick. And by the way, Drew Brees, how about throwing the ball to Marques Colston, your best receiver? Could that help, perhaps? Jesus Christ, you’re killing my Bro Haus fantasy team! (That and Andre Johnson and Ryan Grant’s ankles, respectively).
Chargers -6 RAIDERS – For some reason I hate betting against the Raiders on late home games. I have no stats to back it up, just a gut feeling. But the Chargers are rollin’, and Darren McFadden is out. Go Phillip, go! Did I really just say that?
Titans +7 COWBOYS – The Cowboys Line Inflation Theory, brought to you by Jordan Russum. I mean, he did patent the Sucker Bet Theory with me in 2007. Seven points? I like it.
49ers -3 Eagles – Three 0-4 favorites at home. No more Michael Vick for Philly, at least for now. I’m calling it; Kevin Kolb actually poops in his pants when Patrick Willis stares at him at the line. Just remember where you heard it first.
Vikings +4 JETS – Ugh, I have to root for Randy Moss THIS week? Scratch that, I’m rooting for a 0-0 tie.
Sunday, October 3, 2010
Week 4 Picks
Last Week: 9-7
Simmons Last Week: 10-6
Simmons Overall: 26-19-3
Once again, it came down to Monday night, but this time Simmons got me, taking the Bears at home over the Packers. What an impossible game to take, as the Pack shot themselves in the foot with 18 penalties on the road, never a recipe for success, especially away from home. I still have Simmons by a game overall, though. Now on to Week 4.
Broncos +6.5 TITANS – I love +6.5 lines, as most people think, “They’ll win by at least a touchdown.” Such an enticing line to take the favorites, but I won’t bite. Kyle Orton seems to have found a new weapon in Brandon Lloyd. Horses cover on the road. And don’t be surprised if Laurence Maroney has a significant impact either.
STEELERS -1.5 Ravens – Kind of weird they’re not -3 here; a little scary. But how can you bet against that defense right now? At home!
Bengals -3 BROWNS – Hate this game. Just can’t bet on the Browns getting only three.
Lions +14.5 PACKERS – Short week for the Pack. Too many points. I think?
Panthers +13.5 SAINTS –
49ers +6.5 FALCONS – 49ers were on a short week on the road last week. Falcons are coming off a huge win over the Super Bowl champs. Watch out for Frank Gore.
Seahawks -1 RAMS – Can the Rams really win two games in a row? I’ll take the under.
Jets -5 BILLS – Mark Sanchez actually looks like an NFL quarterback. That’s scary.
Colts -7 JAGUARS – I know they always play them tough. But I told you I refuse to bet against Peyton Manning.
Texans -3 RAIDERS – Ugh what a trap. You might find me at the bottom of the ditch.
CHARGERS -8 Cardinals – Phil Rivers doesn’t seem to be missing Vinny Jackson much. Can you say blowout?
Redskins +5.5 EAGLES – Can you say “Chip on your shoulder”? Does he get booed or cheered? That’s the million-dollar question.
GIANTS -4 Bears – Short week on the road. All day baby!
DOLPHINS pick Patriots – Obviously picking with my head here, not my heart. Pats never play well when they take their talents to
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Week 3 Picks
Last Week: 10-5-1
Simmons Last Week: 9-6-1
Simmons Overall: 16-13-3
For the second straight week, Senor Simmons and I were tied going into Monday night. And for the second straight week, I came out on top, after the 49ers covered at home against Drew Brees and the Saints. What a pick. Now, on to Week 3.
GIANTS -3 Titans – Gmen looked terrible last week against Big Brother Peyton. They bounce back with a win at home over Chris Johnson and Tennessee.
SAINTS -3.5 Falcons -- Brees and Co. take care of business at home.
PATRIOTS -14 Bills – I’d probably take the Pats -20 here. 31-3, homies. I swear that’s a partial opinion.
Browns +10.5 RAVENS – Too many points for a defensive-minded team in a heated rivalry game. Am I really betting on the Browns?
Steelers -2 BUCCANEERS – It’s a simple formula: when Troy Polamalu is on the field, the Steelers win.
Bengals -3 PANTHERS – Ugh, -3 on the road. The line is really only three with Jimmy Clausen making his first career start? Something’s fishy here, but I’ll take the cats, of the orange and black variety, that is.
CHIEFS +2.5 49ers – Love the Chiefs here. 9ers just impressed everyone at home against the Saints. Now they head to Arrowhead on a short week. No brainer.
Lions +11 VIKINGS – Detroit will be 0-3 leaving Minnesota, but 3-0 against the spread. Here, that’s all that counts.
Cowboys +3 TEXANS – The sucker bet of the week. The 0-2 Cowboys visit the red-hot 2-0 Texans. And the line’s only three. Vegas knows what’s up here. I’ll take “America’s team.”
Redskins -3.5 RAMS – Donovan McNabb looks refreshed in a ‘Skins uniform. I just can’t get myself to take the Rams getting less than four points against anyone. Although that didn’t serve me very well last week.
Eagles -3 JAGUARS – Man I’m taking a lot of road teams. I hate that. But Michael Vick will prove why he deserves to be the starter in Philly. He’s just got too much to play for.
Colts -5.5 BRONCOS – Every time I bet against the Colts, they cover. I just can’t do it anymore!
SEAHAWKS +5.5 Chargers – Do I have to take this game? Fine, Seattle is a much different team at home versus on the road. I’ll take the home dogs.
Raiders +4.5 CARDINALS – Ew. I’ll take the points.
DOLPHINS -1.5 Jets – With Revis out, Brandon Marshall goes off. Fins win at home and there’s a three-way tie atop the AFC East.
Packers -3 BEARS – Man this is a tough one. A-Rod for MVP. And I’m not talking about Alex Rodriguez.
Ugh, I took 10 away teams, six away favorites. Damn, I’m screwed.
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Week 2 Picks
Couldn't post this until my pool picks were in, obviously.
Last Week: 8-6-2
Bill Simmons Last Week: 7-7-2
It feels good to beat my nemesis who knows nothing about our heated rivalry in Week 1. We were tied at 6-6-2 heading into the Monday Night slate, but The Sports Guy took the Jets at home while I had faith in Joe Flacco and the Ravens on the road. We both had the Chiefs covering at home over the Chargers, so after Ray Lewis and Co. made Mark Sanchez look like Ryan Leaf, I had Week 1 locked up.
Now it’s Jay-Z time: On to the next one (man, I’m a dork)…
Chiefs +1.5 BROWNS – This smells like a serious sucker bet. Browns lost to Tampa. Chiefs beat the Chargers on Monday night, now heading on the road on a short week. Still, can’t bet against Patriots West until they prove me otherwise.
PACKERS -13 Bills – Not scared about laying 13. Not scared about no Ryan Grant, even though I’m pissed I drafted him in the 2nd round of my Bro Haus fantasy league. Pack in a blowout.
BENGALS +2 Ravens – Bengals didn’t even show up in Foxboro last week. Ravens on the road on a short week. Home team wins this tight division matchup.
Steelers +5 TITANS – Best defensive player in the league (not named Revis) against the most explosive offensive player in the league. I’ll take the points and Rashard Mendenhall; Big Ten love.
LIONS +6 Eagles – Calvin secures the ball with two hands this time. Lions lose another close one, assuming former Badger DeAndre Levy relatively successfully QB-spies Mike Vick.
Bears +7.5 COWBOYS – Over a touchdown? Are the Bears really that bad? Are the Cowboys really that good?
PANTHERS -3.5 Buccaneers – Bucs on the road getting less than four points? I’ll take the Panthers, with DeAngelo Williams at quarterback and Jonathan Stewart at tailback. Matt Moore can rest up for this one.
FALCONS -6.5 Cardinals – Cardinals barely escaped the Rams last week. And now they’re getting less than a touchdown in Atlanta. Roddy White goes off with 185 yards and two scores in this one.
VIKINGS -5.5 Dolphins – Lot of rest for ol’ Brett. This time they’ll let their best player touch the ball in the 2nd half. And I’m definitely not talking about No. 4.
RAIDERS -3.5 Rams – The Rams are really getting less than four on the road? Wow.
BRONCOS -3.5 Seahawks – Last week was a fluke. Let’s see of Pete Carroll can win on the road in the altitude.
TEXANS -3 Redskins – Texans score 34 points and Matt Shaub and Andre the Giant barely contribute. I’m scared to see them actually try.
CHARGERS -7 Jaguars – No way they go 0-2. Jags get jet-lagged in So Cal.
Patriots -3 JETS – Is LT really going to lead the Jets over the Pats? I’ll believe it when I see it.
Giants +5.5 COLTS – Big brother squeaks one out against lil’ bro on national TV.
49ERS +5 Saints – I took the 49ers against Arizona last year on Monday (or Sunday?) night after the Cards demolished the Vikings the week before. History always repeats itself.
Monday, September 13, 2010
Diarrhea of the Mind, Episode 5: Thoughts From Week 1
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Zet vs. Simmons/Vegas: Week 1
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Before I get started, I want everyone to know that I am aware that I am a huge nerd. I love fantasy football, but even more than that, I love to write, make fun of my close friends and compete against them. Fantasy football allows me to do all of the above. So I spent my free time (of which I've had little since I now wake up at 5am and don't get home 'til 7pm most nights) analyzing "The Real Keeper League's" fantasy draft from Sunday night. Hey, I admitted I was a nerd.
I thought Jerry drafted the best out of everyone. He has depth for this season and legitimate keeper options for the future. Three legit starting running backs plus C.J. Spiller makes him a favorite this season.
Pierre Thomas (Round 3, Overall Pick 25) – With Mike Bell gone, that means more touches for Thomas and Reggie Bush.
Arian Foster (4, 48) – The Texans seem to hate Steve Slaton and Ben Tate is out for the year. Huge value for a No. 1 back in round four.
C.J. Spiller (5, 49) – Huge upside in our keeper format. Too good to pass up here.
Santana Moss (8, 96) – Still a No. 1 wideout with a huge upgrade at quarterback in Donovan McNabb. Could Donovan make him this year’s DeSean Jackson? Definitely worth finding out in round eight.
Mike Williams (13, 145) – Having himself a solid preseason. The better Josh Freeman gets, the better Williams’ value becomes.
Chris Johnson could single-handedly make him a contender this year. Especially if Brett Favre has half the season he did in 2009.
Miles Austin (3, 26) – One of the best route runners in the NFL. Can’t believe he fell to No. 26 overall.
Visanthe Shiancoe (7, 74) – Without Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin’s migraines, who is Brett Favre going to target in the endzone? Has to be Shiancoe.
Vincent Jackson (12, 143) – Should he play at all this season, this is a steal. Regardless, there’s huge sleeper value here for 2011.
Donovan McNabb (11, 122) – Good backup to Favre, after stretching for No. 4.
Brett Favre (4, 47) – Bum ankle makes this pick a stretch. Plus Rice and Harvin’s question marks. Can he really repeat his performance from last season?
Mike Sims-Walker (5, 50) – Has "one-year wonder" written all over him.
Garrett Hartley (9, 98) – Everyone knows you don’t pick a kicker until the 14th round at least. What the fuck were you all (not just Brooksie, as you will see) doing drafting them this early?
You’d think he grew up down the street from my new apartment. Jahvid Best, Jermichael Finley, Matt Forte, Sidney Rice in consecutive picks. What, was the NFC North blogger your homepage?
Jermichael Finley (4, 46) – Once Killer Mike took Vernon Davis, this was a gimme.
Eli Manning (10, 118) – I like the strategy. Huge value here in round 10.
Alex Smith (14, 166) – Good value with Davis and Michael Crabtree, especially as a keeper. Plus he plays in the worst division in football.
Darrius Heyward-Bey (15, 171) – Al Davis has to try to justify taking him before Crabtree, right? Maybe Jason Campbell gets him the ball. Why not in the last round?
Jahvid Best (3, 27) – Kind of early for an unproven rookie coming off an injury on the Lions. But there is a lot of keeper potential.
Sidney Rice (6, 70) – Out at least six weeks. Better hope you’re no worse than 3-3 when he comes back.
Nate Kaeding (9, 99) – Really? In round nine?!
Your two best wide receivers are Hakeem Nicks and Robert Meachem. That's not good.
LeSean McCoy (4, 45) – If he’s half the man Brian Westbrook was, this is a great pick.
Braylon Edwards (12, 141) – Who else is Mark Sanchez going to throw to with Santonio Holmes out four weeks? Assuming he can hold onto the ball, that is.
Anthony Gonzalez (15, 172) – Huge value here. Solid route-runner. Just has to beat out Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. That could be tough having not played in two years. Still, why not?
Hakeem Nicks (5, 52) – Kind of early for a No. 2 wide receiver. You wouldn’t rather have Crabtree? Or Wes Welker?
Robert Meachem (6, 69) – Also kind of early. Would way rather have Dwayne Bowe or Pierre Garcon.
Lawrence Tynes (11, 124) – Need I say more?
Decent overall draft. I love Joe Flacco this year. Now you just have to pay the league entry fee and you'll be all set.
Joe Flacco (6, 68) – The addition of Anquan Boldin could be huge for him. Plus, every time Ray Rice runs a screen pass for a touchdown, that’s four points for Flacco.
Carson Palmer (10, 116) – Good value here with the addition of T.O.
Darren McFadden (11, 125) – Tough to pass up on this much talent this late. They’ve invested so much in him, if he can stay healthy.
Todd Heap (14, 164) – Solid for the sole purpose that Owen Daniels is coming off an injury. Good filler ‘til the ex-Badger is back at full strength for the Texans.
A lot of questionable picks, but that's why there's a waiver wire.
Chad Henne (12, 139) – Brandon Marshall could help him put up solid numbers.
Chester Taylor (14, 163) – Should Matt Forte suck again, Taylor is a solid backup. Plus he’ll get some goal line touches.
Leon Washington (15, 174) – Pete Carroll has been raving about him all preseason. Can’t be a bad thing.
Joseph Addai (3, 30) – Jonathan Stewart, McCoy and Foster were all still on the board. Not to mention both Steve Smiths, Jennings and Marques Colston.
Stephen Gostkowski (8, 91) – Hmmm, Santana Moss or a kicker. Come on, Benji!
Beanie Wells in the fifth round was a gift. Love Frank Gore this year, too.
Beanie Wells (5, 55) – Can’t believe he fell this late. One more pick and I had him!
Malcolm Floyd (7, 79) – No Vincent Jackson. Philip Rivers needs a new weapon.
Terrell Owens (10, 114) – Maybe Palmer resurrects Owens with Ocho streaking deep.
Mason Crosby (9, 103) – At this point, I could do nothing but chuckle.
Ben Tate (13, 151) – Never good to draft players who are out for the season.
Really wanted Frank Gore, Michael Turner or Andre Johnson at No. 8. Took Shonn Greene by default. I like my running back/wide receiver depth. Wish I had one more real solid running back, but maybe that will emerge from my bench or a trade.
Greg Jennings (3, 32) – Has to have more touchdowns than last season. He’s the No. 1 fantasy quarterback’s No. 1 receiver.
Dez Bryant (8, 89) – Figured there was good keeper potential here. Jerry Jones wouldn’t have wasted a No. 1 draft pick on someone he wouldn’t use.
Zach Miller (10, 113) – ESPN's Matthew Berry said he loved Miller if he was around in the tenth round. So that’s what I did.
Tim Hightower (11, 128) – Still might be the starter in Arizona. He’s a platoon at worst for this season, with Beanie on the horizon.
Bernard Berrian (13, 152) – Should be Favre’s No. 1 wideout ‘til Rice gets back.
Shonn Greene (1, 8) – May have been a stretch here, but who else would I have taken? Had to show my Big Ten loyalty.
Philip Rivers (4, 41) – No Vinny Jackson may hurt his numbers. But he has to perform with a rookie running back behind him. May have been a stretch, though.
Team rides a lot on Knowshon Moreno and Kevin Kolb. If they perform, you will contend.
Kevin Kolb (8, 88) – Good value here. Andy Reid loves to throw the ball.
Percy Harvin (6, 64) – The migraines are a legitimate concern.
A bunch of decent picks. If Justin Forsett and Jerome Harrison play like they did at the end of last season, you will definitely contend.
Nothing out of the ordinary.
Rob Bironas (10, 111) – I wanted him. But in round 14.
Kevin Smith (12, 135) – With Donald Brown on deck, this was an interesting pick. At least he knows it.
A lot of question marks but a lot of upside. You better hope Donald Driver plays like he did in '09.
Ahmad Bradshaw (5, 59) – Brandon Jacobs is toast. I like it.
Demaryius Thomas (13, 155) – Huge upside for the first rounder in Denver.
Vernon Davis (4, 38) – Not terrible, but can he really have 11 touchdowns again? I’ll tell you who could: Jermichael Finley, who was available here.
Very solid mid-round drafting. I wanted The Rapist and Santonio Holmes when you took them.
Wes Welker (6, 61) – Seems to be healthy. If that’s true, he’s a Top 15 wideout in the Pats’ offense.
Reggie Bush (7, 84) – He’s running hard this preseason without Mike Bell ahead of him.
Ben Roethlisberger (10, 109) – Good insurance for A-Rod. Lots of keeper potential here, too.
Santonio Holmes (11, 132) – Should be a solid No. 2 fantasy wideout after his suspension. If so, what a keeper for ’11.