Sunday, September 26, 2010

Week 3 Picks

Last Week: 10-5-1

Overall: 18-11-3

Simmons Last Week: 9-6-1

Simmons Overall: 16-13-3

For the second straight week, Senor Simmons and I were tied going into Monday night. And for the second straight week, I came out on top, after the 49ers covered at home against Drew Brees and the Saints. What a pick. Now, on to Week 3.

GIANTS -3 Titans – Gmen looked terrible last week against Big Brother Peyton. They bounce back with a win at home over Chris Johnson and Tennessee.

SAINTS -3.5 Falcons -- Brees and Co. take care of business at home.

PATRIOTS -14 Bills – I’d probably take the Pats -20 here. 31-3, homies. I swear that’s a partial opinion.

Browns +10.5 RAVENS – Too many points for a defensive-minded team in a heated rivalry game. Am I really betting on the Browns?

Steelers -2 BUCCANEERS – It’s a simple formula: when Troy Polamalu is on the field, the Steelers win.

Bengals -3 PANTHERS – Ugh, -3 on the road. The line is really only three with Jimmy Clausen making his first career start? Something’s fishy here, but I’ll take the cats, of the orange and black variety, that is.

CHIEFS +2.5 49ers – Love the Chiefs here. 9ers just impressed everyone at home against the Saints. Now they head to Arrowhead on a short week. No brainer.

Lions +11 VIKINGS – Detroit will be 0-3 leaving Minnesota, but 3-0 against the spread. Here, that’s all that counts.

Cowboys +3 TEXANS – The sucker bet of the week. The 0-2 Cowboys visit the red-hot 2-0 Texans. And the line’s only three. Vegas knows what’s up here. I’ll take “America’s team.”

Redskins -3.5 RAMS – Donovan McNabb looks refreshed in a ‘Skins uniform. I just can’t get myself to take the Rams getting less than four points against anyone. Although that didn’t serve me very well last week.

Eagles -3 JAGUARS – Man I’m taking a lot of road teams. I hate that. But Michael Vick will prove why he deserves to be the starter in Philly. He’s just got too much to play for.

Colts -5.5 BRONCOS – Every time I bet against the Colts, they cover. I just can’t do it anymore!

SEAHAWKS +5.5 Chargers – Do I have to take this game? Fine, Seattle is a much different team at home versus on the road. I’ll take the home dogs.

Raiders +4.5 CARDINALS – Ew. I’ll take the points.

DOLPHINS -1.5 Jets – With Revis out, Brandon Marshall goes off. Fins win at home and there’s a three-way tie atop the AFC East.

Packers -3 BEARS – Man this is a tough one. A-Rod for MVP. And I’m not talking about Alex Rodriguez.

Ugh, I took 10 away teams, six away favorites. Damn, I’m screwed.

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Week 2 Picks

Couldn't post this until my pool picks were in, obviously.

Last Week: 8-6-2

Bill Simmons Last Week: 7-7-2

It feels good to beat my nemesis who knows nothing about our heated rivalry in Week 1. We were tied at 6-6-2 heading into the Monday Night slate, but The Sports Guy took the Jets at home while I had faith in Joe Flacco and the Ravens on the road. We both had the Chiefs covering at home over the Chargers, so after Ray Lewis and Co. made Mark Sanchez look like Ryan Leaf, I had Week 1 locked up.

Now it’s Jay-Z time: On to the next one (man, I’m a dork)…

Chiefs +1.5 BROWNS – This smells like a serious sucker bet. Browns lost to Tampa. Chiefs beat the Chargers on Monday night, now heading on the road on a short week. Still, can’t bet against Patriots West until they prove me otherwise.

PACKERS -13 Bills – Not scared about laying 13. Not scared about no Ryan Grant, even though I’m pissed I drafted him in the 2nd round of my Bro Haus fantasy league. Pack in a blowout.

BENGALS +2 Ravens – Bengals didn’t even show up in Foxboro last week. Ravens on the road on a short week. Home team wins this tight division matchup.

Steelers +5 TITANS – Best defensive player in the league (not named Revis) against the most explosive offensive player in the league. I’ll take the points and Rashard Mendenhall; Big Ten love.

LIONS +6 Eagles – Calvin secures the ball with two hands this time. Lions lose another close one, assuming former Badger DeAndre Levy relatively successfully QB-spies Mike Vick.

Bears +7.5 COWBOYS – Over a touchdown? Are the Bears really that bad? Are the Cowboys really that good?

PANTHERS -3.5 Buccaneers – Bucs on the road getting less than four points? I’ll take the Panthers, with DeAngelo Williams at quarterback and Jonathan Stewart at tailback. Matt Moore can rest up for this one.

FALCONS -6.5 Cardinals – Cardinals barely escaped the Rams last week. And now they’re getting less than a touchdown in Atlanta. Roddy White goes off with 185 yards and two scores in this one.

VIKINGS -5.5 Dolphins – Lot of rest for ol’ Brett. This time they’ll let their best player touch the ball in the 2nd half. And I’m definitely not talking about No. 4.

RAIDERS -3.5 Rams – The Rams are really getting less than four on the road? Wow.

BRONCOS -3.5 Seahawks – Last week was a fluke. Let’s see of Pete Carroll can win on the road in the altitude.

TEXANS -3 Redskins – Texans score 34 points and Matt Shaub and Andre the Giant barely contribute. I’m scared to see them actually try.

CHARGERS -7 Jaguars – No way they go 0-2. Jags get jet-lagged in So Cal.

Patriots -3 JETS – Is LT really going to lead the Jets over the Pats? I’ll believe it when I see it.

Giants +5.5 COLTS – Big brother squeaks one out against lil’ bro on national TV.

49ERS +5 Saints – I took the 49ers against Arizona last year on Monday (or Sunday?) night after the Cards demolished the Vikings the week before. History always repeats itself.

Monday, September 13, 2010

Diarrhea of the Mind, Episode 5: Thoughts From Week 1

This week is my last week of training at Coyote, meaning it’s the last time I can justify fucking around during lunch instead of trying to book hot loads of freight (perhaps I’ll cue you in on some industry jargon in a future post).

So since all I can think about it football, now seems like an appropriate time for Diarrhea of the Mind, NFL style…

Jesus Christ, Arian Foster. I just drafted in two new keeper leagues; how the hell did I not draft him in either? God damnit, Tyler Fishbune and Jeff Park.

At least I drafted Matt Forte in the fifth round of my Bro Haus league.

Speaking of the Bears, as much as I wanted them to lose, Calvin Johnson’s “catch” was not a catch. It’s like the Tuck Rule; it’s a shitty rule and it should have been a touchdown (and eight more fantasy points for me against Danny Sullivan), but based on the rule that’s written, it was the right call. How hard would it have been to keep two hands on the ball? Come on, man!

Are the Redskins for real or did the Cowboys just suck? Didn’t watch; I was too busy getting my wallet, credit card, debit card, license, cell phone, boxers and new Coyote t-shirt stolen from the gym. Yeah, awesome night. At least he spared me my iPod.

Along those same lines, what the hell happened in Seattle? Are the Seahawks actually going to contend in the NFC West? Sure looks that way after 60 minutes of football.

Man the Pats looked good. The Bengals didn’t even show up, but boy Tom Brady reminded me of his 2007 version. Jets next week; oh baby!

Speaking of the Patriots, does Randy Moss really need to go on a 16-minute rant about his contract after embarrassing Cincy at home? Just play, Randy; your agent will take care of the rest. That’s why he gets a percentage of your salary, homie.

The Texans really scored 34 points and Matt Schaub only threw for 107 yards? Oh yeah, Foster.

How much did Vegas clean up on that game, by the way? Colts -2 at Houston. Is this the year of the Sucker Bet?

I’m tied with Bill Simmons (6-6-2) heading into the Monday Night games. Come on, Ravens!
OK, Michael Vick. As much of a thug as he is, man is he fun to watch.

Twelve-of-25, no touchdowns, two picks, one fumble for Mark Sanchez tonight. Did I mention I was rooting for the Ravens?

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Zet vs. Simmons/Vegas: Week 1

Allow my sports dorkiness to continue. For years I have studied football not just from a win-loss perspective, but against Las Vegas' odds. I've dabbled with some mild gambling, hovering around even. Throughout college I discussed ad nauseum weekly lines with my roommates, while helping Danny Tuckman with his picks with Uncle Howie and Russell Thaw with his weekly teasers.

Now it's my turn, for no money. I will pick each game each week against the odds and see how I fare. I'll compare it to Bill Simmons of ESPN's picks, for I am him, 15 years younger in a world where New Age Journalism just doesn't make any sense.

So here we go; Week 1. Let the games begin:

SAINTS (-4.5) Vikings – If it weren’t for his Cal Ripken games streak, Favre would be sitting on Thursday. His ankle + no Sidney Rice + Percy Harvin’s headaches + banner being raised = blowout. Saints by 13.

Panthers (+7) GIANTS – Too many points for a team that can rush for 250 yards and control the clock. I think the Matt Moore/Steve Smith combo will turn some heads this year, too.

Dolphins (-3) BILLS – Ugh, I hate -3 on the road in a division game. That being said, the Bills might not win five games this year. And one won’t come against the Dolphins, at least while Ronnie Brown is still healthy.

STEELERS (+2) Falcons – Dome team on the worst turf in football. Rashard Mendenhall controls the time of possession for Pittsburgh. Steelers win ugly by a field goal.

Lions (+6.5) BEARS – Welcome to the Jahvid Best Show. Ndamukong Suh also makes Jay Cutler his bitch with a pair of violent, blood-curling sacks.

Bengals (+4.5) PATRIOTS – Terrible matchup for the Patriots’ corners who have a combined five career starts between them. Bill Belichick knows that. Pats play possession ball and win the chess match by four.

BUCCANEERS (-3) Browns – Why not? Are people in Cleveland and Tampa even going to watch this game?

JAGUARS (-2.5) Broncos – Who is Kyle Orton going to throw the ball to without Brandon Marshall? I’ll take the home team with the best player on the field: MJD.

Colts (-2) TEXANS – Texans always play the Colts tough, right? I thought so, too, until I saw that the Colts are 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 against Houston. I bet against Peyton Manning too many times last year and got burned. Fool me once, shame on you…

Raiders (+6.5) TITANS – No one was watching, but the Raiders sneakily kept games close in the second half of last season. I’ll take the points.

Packers (-3) EAGLES – Ugh, another road favorite -3? Packers are too explosive not to cover.

49ers (-3) SEAHAWKS – Wanted to take the Hawks at home with the points. But Mike Singletary vs. Pete Carroll? Really?

RAMS (+4) Cardinals – Again, why not?

Cowboys (-3.5) REDSKINS – My roommate, Mike Clair, says the Redskins always suck on national TV. That’s good enough for me.

Ravens (+2.5) JETS – Too many weapons. Mark Sanchez sucks. Darrelle Revis is rusty. No Santonio Holmes. I swear that’s a non-biased opinion.

CHIEFS (+5.5) Chargers – Patriots West cover at home against the Vincent Jackson-less Chargers.

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Commissioner's Analysis

Before I get started, I want everyone to know that I am aware that I am a huge nerd. I love fantasy football, but even more than that, I love to write, make fun of my close friends and compete against them. Fantasy football allows me to do all of the above. So I spent my free time (of which I've had little since I now wake up at 5am and don't get home 'til 7pm most nights) analyzing "The Real Keeper League's" fantasy draft from Sunday night. Hey, I admitted I was a nerd.

Jerry Po

I thought Jerry drafted the best out of everyone. He has depth for this season and legitimate keeper options for the future. Three legit starting running backs plus C.J. Spiller makes him a favorite this season.

Solid Picks

Pierre Thomas (Round 3, Overall Pick 25) – With Mike Bell gone, that means more touches for Thomas and Reggie Bush.

Arian Foster (4, 48) – The Texans seem to hate Steve Slaton and Ben Tate is out for the year. Huge value for a No. 1 back in round four.

C.J. Spiller (5, 49) – Huge upside in our keeper format. Too good to pass up here.

Santana Moss (8, 96) – Still a No. 1 wideout with a huge upgrade at quarterback in Donovan McNabb. Could Donovan make him this year’s DeSean Jackson? Definitely worth finding out in round eight.

Mike Williams (13, 145) – Having himself a solid preseason. The better Josh Freeman gets, the better Williams’ value becomes.

Sketchy Picks



Chris Johnson could single-handedly make him a contender this year. Especially if Brett Favre has half the season he did in 2009.

Solid Picks

Miles Austin (3, 26) – One of the best route runners in the NFL. Can’t believe he fell to No. 26 overall.

Visanthe Shiancoe (7, 74) – Without Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin’s migraines, who is Brett Favre going to target in the endzone? Has to be Shiancoe.

Vincent Jackson (12, 143) – Should he play at all this season, this is a steal. Regardless, there’s huge sleeper value here for 2011.

Donovan McNabb (11, 122) – Good backup to Favre, after stretching for No. 4.

Sketchy Picks

Brett Favre (4, 47) – Bum ankle makes this pick a stretch. Plus Rice and Harvin’s question marks. Can he really repeat his performance from last season?

Mike Sims-Walker (5, 50) – Has "one-year wonder" written all over him.

Garrett Hartley (9, 98) – Everyone knows you don’t pick a kicker until the 14th round at least. What the fuck were you all (not just Brooksie, as you will see) doing drafting them this early?


You’d think he grew up down the street from my new apartment. Jahvid Best, Jermichael Finley, Matt Forte, Sidney Rice in consecutive picks. What, was the NFC North blogger your homepage?

Solid Picks

Jermichael Finley (4, 46) – Once Killer Mike took Vernon Davis, this was a gimme.

Eli Manning (10, 118) – I like the strategy. Huge value here in round 10.

Alex Smith (14, 166) – Good value with Davis and Michael Crabtree, especially as a keeper. Plus he plays in the worst division in football.

Darrius Heyward-Bey (15, 171) – Al Davis has to try to justify taking him before Crabtree, right? Maybe Jason Campbell gets him the ball. Why not in the last round?

Sketchy Picks

Jahvid Best (3, 27) – Kind of early for an unproven rookie coming off an injury on the Lions. But there is a lot of keeper potential.

Sidney Rice (6, 70) – Out at least six weeks. Better hope you’re no worse than 3-3 when he comes back.

Nate Kaeding (9, 99) – Really? In round nine?!


Your two best wide receivers are Hakeem Nicks and Robert Meachem. That's not good.

Solid Picks

LeSean McCoy (4, 45) – If he’s half the man Brian Westbrook was, this is a great pick.

Braylon Edwards (12, 141) – Who else is Mark Sanchez going to throw to with Santonio Holmes out four weeks? Assuming he can hold onto the ball, that is.

Anthony Gonzalez (15, 172) – Huge value here. Solid route-runner. Just has to beat out Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. That could be tough having not played in two years. Still, why not?

Sketchy Picks

Hakeem Nicks (5, 52) – Kind of early for a No. 2 wide receiver. You wouldn’t rather have Crabtree? Or Wes Welker?

Robert Meachem (6, 69) – Also kind of early. Would way rather have Dwayne Bowe or Pierre Garcon.

Lawrence Tynes (11, 124) – Need I say more?


Decent overall draft. I love Joe Flacco this year. Now you just have to pay the league entry fee and you'll be all set.

Solid Picks

Joe Flacco (6, 68) – The addition of Anquan Boldin could be huge for him. Plus, every time Ray Rice runs a screen pass for a touchdown, that’s four points for Flacco.

Carson Palmer (10, 116) – Good value here with the addition of T.O.

Darren McFadden (11, 125) – Tough to pass up on this much talent this late. They’ve invested so much in him, if he can stay healthy.

Todd Heap (14, 164) – Solid for the sole purpose that Owen Daniels is coming off an injury. Good filler ‘til the ex-Badger is back at full strength for the Texans.

Sketchy Picks



A lot of questionable picks, but that's why there's a waiver wire.

Solid Picks

Chad Henne (12, 139) – Brandon Marshall could help him put up solid numbers.

Chester Taylor (14, 163) – Should Matt Forte suck again, Taylor is a solid backup. Plus he’ll get some goal line touches.

Leon Washington (15, 174) – Pete Carroll has been raving about him all preseason. Can’t be a bad thing.

Sketchy Picks

Joseph Addai (3, 30) – Jonathan Stewart, McCoy and Foster were all still on the board. Not to mention both Steve Smiths, Jennings and Marques Colston.

Stephen Gostkowski (8, 91) – Hmmm, Santana Moss or a kicker. Come on, Benji!


Beanie Wells in the fifth round was a gift. Love Frank Gore this year, too.

Solid Picks

Beanie Wells (5, 55) – Can’t believe he fell this late. One more pick and I had him!

Malcolm Floyd (7, 79) – No Vincent Jackson. Philip Rivers needs a new weapon.

Terrell Owens (10, 114) – Maybe Palmer resurrects Owens with Ocho streaking deep.

Sketchy Picks

Mason Crosby (9, 103) – At this point, I could do nothing but chuckle.

Ben Tate (13, 151) – Never good to draft players who are out for the season.


Really wanted Frank Gore, Michael Turner or Andre Johnson at No. 8. Took Shonn Greene by default. I like my running back/wide receiver depth. Wish I had one more real solid running back, but maybe that will emerge from my bench or a trade.

Solid Picks

Greg Jennings (3, 32) – Has to have more touchdowns than last season. He’s the No. 1 fantasy quarterback’s No. 1 receiver.

Dez Bryant (8, 89) – Figured there was good keeper potential here. Jerry Jones wouldn’t have wasted a No. 1 draft pick on someone he wouldn’t use.

Zach Miller (10, 113) – ESPN's Matthew Berry said he loved Miller if he was around in the tenth round. So that’s what I did.

Tim Hightower (11, 128) – Still might be the starter in Arizona. He’s a platoon at worst for this season, with Beanie on the horizon.

Bernard Berrian (13, 152) – Should be Favre’s No. 1 wideout ‘til Rice gets back.

Sketchy Picks

Shonn Greene (1, 8) – May have been a stretch here, but who else would I have taken? Had to show my Big Ten loyalty.

Philip Rivers (4, 41) – No Vinny Jackson may hurt his numbers. But he has to perform with a rookie running back behind him. May have been a stretch, though.


Team rides a lot on Knowshon Moreno and Kevin Kolb. If they perform, you will contend.

Solid Picks

Kevin Kolb (8, 88) – Good value here. Andy Reid loves to throw the ball.

Sketchy Picks

Percy Harvin (6, 64) – The migraines are a legitimate concern.


A bunch of decent picks. If Justin Forsett and Jerome Harrison play like they did at the end of last season, you will definitely contend.

Solid Picks

Nothing out of the ordinary.

Sketchy Picks

Rob Bironas (10, 111) – I wanted him. But in round 14.

Kevin Smith (12, 135) – With Donald Brown on deck, this was an interesting pick. At least he knows it.

Killer Mike

A lot of question marks but a lot of upside. You better hope Donald Driver plays like he did in '09.

Solid Picks

Ahmad Bradshaw (5, 59) – Brandon Jacobs is toast. I like it.

Demaryius Thomas (13, 155) – Huge upside for the first rounder in Denver.

Sketchy Picks

Vernon Davis (4, 38) – Not terrible, but can he really have 11 touchdowns again? I’ll tell you who could: Jermichael Finley, who was available here.


Very solid mid-round drafting. I wanted The Rapist and Santonio Holmes when you took them.

Solid Picks

Wes Welker (6, 61) – Seems to be healthy. If that’s true, he’s a Top 15 wideout in the Pats’ offense.

Reggie Bush (7, 84) – He’s running hard this preseason without Mike Bell ahead of him.

Ben Roethlisberger (10, 109) – Good insurance for A-Rod. Lots of keeper potential here, too.

Santonio Holmes (11, 132) – Should be a solid No. 2 fantasy wideout after his suspension. If so, what a keeper for ’11.

Sketchy Picks