Week 3 sucker bets: Beware of the Texans

Last week: 1-3
Overall: 1-3

It was a tough start to 2009 for the Sucker Bet Theory (SBT), as it went a dismal 1-3 in Week 2. To be honest, it should have gone 1-4, seeing that Colts -3 at Miami fit the SBT mold pretty perfectly. And it easily could have gone 0-5, if it weren’t for Jeff Reed’s pair of missed field goals in Chicago.

The Chiefs couldn’t hold of Darren McFadden and the Raiders; likewise for the Lions with Adrian Peterson. And the Falcons covered by two at home against the now-0-2 Panthers.

One of three conclusions (I like Nos. 2 and 3) can be made from last Sunday. 1) SBT is false. 2) The bookies are a bit rusty and still gauging just how good each team is. Or 3) What I like to call SBTII, a sub-theory, if you will. SBTII says that the bookies screw up on purpose early in the season to entice more gambling as the season progresses. If you bet on Indianapolis Monday night and thought, “Hey, this is easy,” you should probably quit while you’re ahead, according to SBTII. Trust me, it’s not that easy. Vegas lost a lot of money Monday night. After all, who bet on the Dolphins? Don’t expect the bookies to continue making those mistakes.

Three games stick out to me as sucker bets in Week 3. So without further ado:

At Jets -2.5 Titans
New York is coming off of an emotional win over the Patriots. Mark Sanchez looked great. The defense looked great. They’re 2-0 and Tennessee – whose defense had no answer for Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson & Co. – is 0-2. The Jets should be able to cover at home, you think.

But this is a must-win game for Jeff Fisher’s Titans. Call it the hangover effect in the Meadowlands, if you must. The Jets still have a rookie coach and a rookie quarterback, no matter how good they looked against New England. Bet on the team that needs the win the most. That’s Tennessee.

At Texans -3.5 Jaguars
Houston’s offense just torched Tennessee for 34 points on Sunday. Jacksonville is 0-2, coming off of a blowout at home to the hands of defending NFC champion Arizona.

My question: Who in the world is betting on the Jaguars in this game?

Exactly. All the money will be on Houston. People would bet on the Texans at -6, so why is the line only 3 1/2?

No way Vegas screws this one up. If the Texans cover, the bookies will lose a lot of money (unless SBTII is still in effect in Week 3, which is a possibility).

Biggest sucker bet of the week. Bet on Houston at your own risk.

Bears -2 at Seattle
Matt Hasselbeck is hurt and probably out, leaving Seneca Wallace at the helm once again. Jay Cutler and the Bears are coming off an impressive win against the defending champs. And the line is only two.

Do not underestimate home field advantage in the NFL. Or Lofa Tatupu, for that matter.

You love Chicago. Don’t grab the trapped cheese. The bookies love the Hawks at home.