Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Zet vs. Simmons/Vegas: Week 1

Allow my sports dorkiness to continue. For years I have studied football not just from a win-loss perspective, but against Las Vegas' odds. I've dabbled with some mild gambling, hovering around even. Throughout college I discussed ad nauseum weekly lines with my roommates, while helping Danny Tuckman with his picks with Uncle Howie and Russell Thaw with his weekly teasers.

Now it's my turn, for no money. I will pick each game each week against the odds and see how I fare. I'll compare it to Bill Simmons of ESPN's picks, for I am him, 15 years younger in a world where New Age Journalism just doesn't make any sense.

So here we go; Week 1. Let the games begin:

SAINTS (-4.5) Vikings – If it weren’t for his Cal Ripken games streak, Favre would be sitting on Thursday. His ankle + no Sidney Rice + Percy Harvin’s headaches + banner being raised = blowout. Saints by 13.

Panthers (+7) GIANTS – Too many points for a team that can rush for 250 yards and control the clock. I think the Matt Moore/Steve Smith combo will turn some heads this year, too.

Dolphins (-3) BILLS – Ugh, I hate -3 on the road in a division game. That being said, the Bills might not win five games this year. And one won’t come against the Dolphins, at least while Ronnie Brown is still healthy.

STEELERS (+2) Falcons – Dome team on the worst turf in football. Rashard Mendenhall controls the time of possession for Pittsburgh. Steelers win ugly by a field goal.

Lions (+6.5) BEARS – Welcome to the Jahvid Best Show. Ndamukong Suh also makes Jay Cutler his bitch with a pair of violent, blood-curling sacks.

Bengals (+4.5) PATRIOTS – Terrible matchup for the Patriots’ corners who have a combined five career starts between them. Bill Belichick knows that. Pats play possession ball and win the chess match by four.

BUCCANEERS (-3) Browns – Why not? Are people in Cleveland and Tampa even going to watch this game?

JAGUARS (-2.5) Broncos – Who is Kyle Orton going to throw the ball to without Brandon Marshall? I’ll take the home team with the best player on the field: MJD.

Colts (-2) TEXANS – Texans always play the Colts tough, right? I thought so, too, until I saw that the Colts are 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 against Houston. I bet against Peyton Manning too many times last year and got burned. Fool me once, shame on you…

Raiders (+6.5) TITANS – No one was watching, but the Raiders sneakily kept games close in the second half of last season. I’ll take the points.

Packers (-3) EAGLES – Ugh, another road favorite -3? Packers are too explosive not to cover.

49ers (-3) SEAHAWKS – Wanted to take the Hawks at home with the points. But Mike Singletary vs. Pete Carroll? Really?

RAMS (+4) Cardinals – Again, why not?

Cowboys (-3.5) REDSKINS – My roommate, Mike Clair, says the Redskins always suck on national TV. That’s good enough for me.

Ravens (+2.5) JETS – Too many weapons. Mark Sanchez sucks. Darrelle Revis is rusty. No Santonio Holmes. I swear that’s a non-biased opinion.

CHIEFS (+5.5) Chargers – Patriots West cover at home against the Vincent Jackson-less Chargers.

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